Greece’s Shipping and Island Policy Minister Vassilis Kikilias has underscored the severe global economic implications should Iran opt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint.
Mr. Kikilias, speaking to SKAI TV, emphasized that such a scenario would not only impact the shipping industry but would reverberate across the entire global economy.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is closed – which is the worst-case scenario – it will affect the entire global economy, not just shipping,” Mr. Kikilias said, noting that approximately 90% of global trade depends on maritime routes.
He warned that rerouting vessels around Africa to reach key destinations in Europe and the United States would significantly disrupt global supply chains.
The minister described the current geopolitical landscape as “very volatile,” highlighting that oil prices have already surged by 7 to 10% in recent days amid growing uncertainty.
He reaffirmed that the safety of seafarers and the significant Greek-owned fleet operating in the region remain a priority for Greece.
On average, 170 to 180 Greek-owned vessels are present in the wider Persian Gulf area, with 15 to 20 Greek-flagged ships among the 70 to 80 vessels transiting the strait every six to eight hours, according to Mr. Kikilias.
The heightened tension stems from Iranian indications that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed in response to Israeli military actions and Western pressure.
While Tehran has reiterated its commitment to maintaining open navigation in the Gulf so long as its national interests are protected, it has warned that direct U.S. military involvement in support of Israel could trigger measures to restrict oil flows to Western markets.
International concern centers on the potential destabilization of oil exports from the region.
Market estimates suggest that crude oil prices could exceed $80 per barrel in the event of such a disruption.
The International Monetary Fund has previously noted that similar disruptions in the past have resulted in global inflation spikes and a contraction of the global economy by 0.2% to 1%.