Global meteorological agencies issued an urgent warning this month that a historically intense "Super El Niño" event could drive global temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal by December, according to converging forecasts from the world's leading climate monitoring bodies.
Data released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the World Meteorological Organization show sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific rising far faster than initially projected.
While baseline models point to a 3-degree Celsius anomaly, extreme projections now suggest a spike as high as 4 degrees — a scale matched only by the most destructive El Niño episodes on record.
"If these models are validated, we will witness one of the strongest El Niño events of all time," said Demetria Founta, director of research at the Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development at the National Observatory of Athens.
Writing in the scientific journal Kosmos, Dr. Founta said the phenomenon acts as an amplifier on a global climate system already heavily altered by human activity.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring natural climate pattern driven by shifting Pacific trade winds.
During an active phase, weakened equatorial winds allow large volumes of warm water to accumulate in the eastern Pacific, disrupting global atmospheric circulation and triggering extreme weather worldwide.
Though driven by natural variability rather than direct greenhouse emissions, its arrival atop an already warmed planetary baseline sharply raises the risk of catastrophic flooding, prolonged drought and widespread crop failure.
Dr. Founta said that while regional systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation dominate Mediterranean and southern European weather, teleconnections from an El Niño of this magnitude are statistically linked to hotter, drier European summers through 2027 — a development she warned would compound existing global food security risks.
By Vassilis Goulas