A clear majority of Greeks want a change of government, yet the opposition is too divided to threaten Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, a new Marc poll for ANT1 television suggests, leaving his party the front-runner for next year's election without a majority to govern alone.
Some 54.1% want political change and 41.1% prefer stability. Only 36.7% approve of the government's record, while 62.7% disapprove. Yet New Democracy leads with 30.4%, almost double the 15.8% of Alexis Tsipras's new party, ELAS, with PASOK third at 12.4%.
That gap is the story.
The anti-government vote is split among at least eight parties, from the Communists on the left to Greek Solution on the right, and none is close to New Democracy. Mr. Mitsotakis is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term, and Mr. Tsipras, a former prime minister, polls second as the best leader at only 14.2%. Mr. Mitsotakis leads at 30.6%.
The numbers also show New Democracy's limit. At about 30%, it would fall short of an outright majority even with the bonus seats Greek law gives the top party, which start above 25% and rise with its share.
A rival poll by Opinion Poll projects 122 of 300 seats, 29 short of 151. Coalition talks or a repeat election would follow.
The main driver is cost of living. Voters rate the economy "moderate," and only 31.8% say the government's price measures help enough.
Voters under 45 want change by a wide margin, while those over 65 favor stability.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent visit drew a mixed response: 45.1% positive, 40.7% negative.